🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436,000 from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in positions just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," stated an industry expert. Several of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill presented on recently would prevent government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Market Background Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to predict everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."